In 2005, while in grad school at the University of Toronto, I wrote a paper entitled "Approaching the Final Act: The Drama of Kosovo."  Based on the evidence available at the time, I came up with four possible scenarios for the future of Kosovo.

Scenario #1: Kosovo remains a province of Serbia, but with greater autonomy.  Ethnic Albanian Kosovars are unhappy in the short run, but ultimately (in a generation or so), grumblings of independence could cease if Serbia modified its policies/treatment of the province.  Combine that olive branch along with a continued flow of aid from outside entities (the US and the EU, for example) and strong leadership in Kosovo bent on rebuilding the province, and the possiblility of Serbian happiness (i.e., it retains the territory that is amongst other things its religious heartland) increases.

Scenario #2: Kosovo breaks away from Serbia and becomes part of Albania.  Not a very likely scenario, but on the table at the time nonetheless.

Scenario #3: Kosovo declares its independence and is recognized by the international community (including Serbia and Russia) as its own sovereign nationstate.  I didn't see this scenaro very likely, either.  Let's consider the domino effect, for if Russia recognizes Kosovo's independence, what other territories that are currently "Russian" would jump on Kosovo's bandwagon?  Furthermore, the European Union, as a block, would not come have a concensensus (think about Greece and Cypress).  IF Kosovo was recognized and accepted as its own nationstate, there would need to be some major changes in the dynamics of the world.  Without that, scenario #3 had no chance of being the final outcome.

Scenaro #4: Kosovo declares its independence with the backing of some big dogs in the international community (like the United States), but not all (like Russia).  Political, if not physical struggles ensue, with the stability of the Balkans threated yet again.  This, folks, is the status quo we face today.

Personally, I support the Kosovar independence movement, but it's going to take some serious international maneuvering before everyone's happy.

Links:

• CNN's In-Depth Special on Kosovo
• BBC's Kosovo Fact Files
• EU Politics Today - EU-Kosovo News
• Kosova.org